Yesterday Gianfranco Fini has taught a math lesson to Silvio Berlusconi, showing that without the votes and the Future of Liberty is no longer at least a majority in the House. And now? The situation seems to me it makes very intricate and complicated. There are two possible scenarios.
The first is that the prime minister "accept" the invitation by Napolitano Fini going to resign. Berlusocni perspective that does not like but that a mandatory where the majority go back under maybe you can vote on the motion of no confidence against the minister Bondi (Bondi result heavy because it is also one of three national coordinators of the PDL). At that point, the road to follow would be (and is) the Constitution, giving the President the power to sciogliemento of both Houses (or only), provides that Napolitano will have to see if there is a Parliament alternative on which to build a majority government. What kind? We live in an economic crisis increasingly heavy, we live in a country that needs structural reforms (welfare to work), a new ruling class. Emergencies that require a stable and lasting. So the most probable hypothesis would be the construction of a government "technical" but responabilità national level (with Dragons at driving it, or perhaps no coincidence that Montezemolo opens every day since the announcement of his descent into the field ) that points to the first reform of the electoral law (and the one where the differences are minor could be a majority two-round elevation of a quorum but no reward for the majority) and to end the crisis Italy before returning to the polls .
The second scenario can not ignore the nature Berlusconi has been and continues to be an entrepreneur, that is, one ready to risk it. And this scenario assumes Berlusconi decides to be clearly discouraged in Parliament. He, of denying it, relies heavily on human weaknesses of others, especially those on the more than 100 deputies to the first order that in the event of dissolution of Parliament would not have completed the requirements for annuity nor would (given the reduction in the number of members of parliament) the mathematical certainty of re-election.
But the real question (and effectively Fini said Sunday closing of the session of FLI) is that the Speaker of the House does not want to Berlusconi. Like it or not this is the real issue. Otherwise you do not understand why he has stressed Sunday the best (according to him) operated of many ministers. And this regardless foreclosure crisis is inevitable but its hard to redial. Meanwhile, the political landscape is earthquake stricken. Nando Pagnoncelli assign more than 20% to third pole of a center heterogeneous because it includes UDC, API Rutelli, to the north and FLI. Where this strange alliance should assume the contours of a genuine electoral deployment, however, it becomes clear what could be the target of Fini: replace this with a center that has governed Italy for 15 years. However you see, I have a feeling that the forthcoming elections will mark the end of the Second Republic .
May the force be with you!
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