Regional 2010: comparison with the 2009 European and 2008 policies
Cattaneo Institute in Bologna has carried out some processing of the results of the regional vote
just ended to determine what the major contenders have collected more or less consensus
compared to the most recent elections . In particular, the results of regional elections
were compared with those of the 2009 European elections and political
2008. This is a study with a previous analysis of the results of regional
2005 and 2010, made necessary by the fact that it is only since 2008 that there are two major formations present
: People of Freedom and Democracy Party. The
analysis cover only 13 regions where voting took place on 28 and 29 March 2010. Among the most important results can be
quote:
- A sharp decline in voter turnout: if they voted in 2008 to 30.2 million
Italians, the voters in 2009 were 26.1 million and 22.5 million in 2010 just . Compared
European elections which took place only nine months ago, then stayed home
almost 3.7 million voters. Needless to say, this is an enormous challenge. Compared to 2008, when
vote was held for Parliament, which traditionally
mobilize more voters in 2010 there was a decrease of 25.8%. The contraction is was 14.1% compared to the 2009 European
. These two values \u200b\u200bbecome benchmarks for assessing the performance of
consents to individual parties in 2010.
- The Northern League has lost 117 000 votes compared to 2008 (-4.1%) and 195 000 votes compared to
2009 (-6.6%). Although the change is negative, it is very low compared
trend in participation and therefore is equivalent to an increase in support. In some regions
- Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany - the League has collected more
consensus gradually over the last two elections (European and regional). In Piedmont, in spite of the successful candidate
League for the presidency, the league has got fewer votes than either
2008 (-7.5%) and 2009 (-15.8%).
- The People of Freedom has lost more than 4 million votes compared to 2008 (-40.3%) and
more than 2.4 million votes compared to 2009 (-28.9%), thus excluding from the calculation of the votes
achieved in the province of Rome and European policies (this trick makes the
comparable results of 2010, when the PDL list was not present in the province of Rome,
with those of previous years). It is, in both cases, a decline appreciably greater than that attributable to abstention
and therefore attributable to a lower recall the party. In addition, the
decline is observed in all regions examined.
- Overall, the People of Freedom and Lega Nord have lost almost 4.2 million votes
compared to 2008 (-32.3%) and more than 2.6 million votes compared to 2009 (-23.1% )
in thirteen regions where voting took place. Both variations are more pronounced than
attributable to the increase in voter participation.
- The progress of the center-right has been accompanied by a significant rebalancing in
balance of power within the center-right: the Northern League in 2008 gave account of the complex
21.8% of the vote center-right (In its narrower sense: PDL +
League), in 2009 the incidence rose to 25.9% and reach 31.4% in 2010.
In other words, the League has greatly increased his weight by the coalition.
2 - The Democratic Party lost nearly 4.5 million votes compared to the consensus
collected in 2008 (-43.3%) and more than 1.1 million votes compared to 2009 (-15.9%). This is a very
marked decline compared to 2008, even taking into consideration the higher turnout, but a dynamic
in line with the decline in voter participation as regards the comparison with the European
2009. The losses are recorded in all regions, with
attenuation, as regards the comparison with 2009, in Campania, Puglia and Basilicata
.
- Italy of Values \u200b\u200bshows the dynamics more complex. The party won 271 000 votes
compared to 2008 (+21.0%), but has experienced a decline from the 2009 European
all'exploit: lost 474 000 votes (-23.3%). In short, a strong advance over
policies, but a contraction of the vote, even taking into account
of abstention, in comparison to Europe. Over the last year, the declines in support
observed in all regions, except in Tuscany and Umbria (where the IDV indeed grows
further) and Lazio (where the decrease is very limited, and less than that attributable to the
of abstention).
- The center-left in its narrow sense (Pd + IDV), lost almost 4.2 million votes (-
36.1%) compared to the policies of 2008 (the same decrease in absolute value, the center-right)
and nearly 1.6 million votes (-17.6%) compared to 2009 (not, therefore, of the center, but
more than can be attributed to abstention).
- The balance of power within the center-left have stagnated over the last year: in 2008 Italy
values \u200b\u200baffected for 11, 1% of the votes on the complex Pd + IDV;
in 2009, this incidence increased to 22.7% and has remained substantially the same (21.1%) in 2010.
- The UDC has lost votes compared to 2008 (-351 thousand votes, or -22.0%) and 2009 (-377 thousand votes
, -23.2%). If the first value is consistent with the dynamics of electoral participation, the latter is not
and corresponds to a substantial decline of the vote.
- The radical left has gained votes compared to the collapse in the elections in 2008 (+134
thousand votes, 10.6%), but is unable to replicate the revival of 2009. Compared to Europe, in fact, lose
half a million votes (-26.3%). There is one significant exception: Puglia, where the Left parties
advance of 171 000 votes compared to 2008 and to 52 000 over 2009.
course, compared to general elections and European elections at the regional
major parties face competition of the "lists of the President" and other civic lists that
however, are linked to the major candidates. These lists are not entered our
statement, which refers to the major parties. However, the values \u200b\u200breported here
describe some important trends to understand the transformation of the political balance in the system
parties.
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